Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
